2026 Richmond BizSense Economic Forecast Event
Richmond BizSense hosted their 2026 Economic Forecast event at the University of Richmond. I attended with a sold-out crowd, eager to hear the perspectives of local business owners on their hot take on how the economy is going – and how our local community is faring.
Below are my notes from the event. To be fully transparent, I am not a reporter and I’m sharing my personal perspective from my notes. If any details need to be corrected – please reach out and I’m happy to do so.
Part 1: Business Leaders Panel
There were five panelists representing the local business community for the first half of the conversation.
Sarah Paxton, Co-Owner & President
LaDiff
2026 economic confidence prediction – 7.5
Sarah’s economic observations for 2025
– DOGE layoffs and government shutdown time hit tons of customers in their discretionary spending
– tariffs are hitting the American people hardest, customs is in chaos, items are staying 3-4 weeks vs. 1-2 days like before
– customers place an order and by the time it’s fulfilled, the pricing has to change based on government policies that have shifted
– in one week a small business they work with had 2 of 3 suppliers change their pricing by 50%
– they have had to cherry-pick different vendors and suppliers
– Richmond area market has more renters, who are not always going to invest in their spaces the same as homeowners
Local market conditions, not as many folks selling because of rates or valuations of homes they could move into. New homeowners tend to be great customers and there just aren’t as many
Supreme Court is hearing the case of over 1000 companies seeking refunds from over $130 billion in tariff revenue already collected.
What needs to happen for 2026 to be a good year?
• be involved and aware locally and globally, we need more citizen participation and we need to stay knowledgeable and educated on what’s happening in the world and how it affects our businesses and communities.
Richmond Business Climate: our diversity and generosity.
Dennis Hatchett
President and Chief Executive Officer
Feed More
2026 economic confidence prediction – 7 overall, 10 for Central Virginia
Dennis’ economic observations for 2025
– government shutdown paused training of staff
– small % of the food support from the federal government hasn’t been reliable
– Governor Youngkin allocated an additional $1 million in state funds to area food banks to offset the greater needs with federal government pulling back
– often restaurants have been able to donate more but their margins have gotten squeezed as the cost of food and production have continued to rise
– tariffs / inflation has hit hard, local retailers are navigating rising costs and not able to donate as much
– 1 in 9 parens is food insecure / 1 in 6 children is food insecure, sadly food insecurity often shows up with other life events or challenges that have been compounded in recent years for many Central Virginians
What needs to happen for 2026 to be a good year?
– would love to see more stability in the federal administration / clear rules of engagement
– continued community involvement, giving of time and $
– folks staying involved and active
Richmond Business Climate: our people and our generosity
Rob Long, Founder | Entrepreneur
Bar West, Vita Pure, River City Roll
2026 economic confidence prediction – 7
Rob’s economic observations for 2025
– prior to 2025, had YoY growth, but that stopped in 2025
– with food costs sometimes doubling, they lost money on some dishes
– has been able to rely on steady corporate outing spending in the past but that wasn’t happening this year – outside of the 2025 holiday season there was a bit of a corporate spending rebound
– nobody except him, the owner can afford to live in the neighborhood where RCR is – Scotts Addition
– VitaPure – as a high-end brand has not been affected. As an ultra-premium brand it has held steady and has been growing.
– tons of uncertainty in corporate spending and personal spending year-long, monthly or recurring events or parties went away, the trend is that younger folks are not drinking as much and being more discerning with their spending as the next generation of consumer
– the premium beers are suffering – needing to offer more basics
– burdensome to plan a menu when pricing changes so often and so drastically at the supplier – hard to predict and not sure what is even possible to pass along to the consumer
What needs to happen for 2026 to be a good year?
– if people can get more comfortable with the chaos and noise
– the volatile environment might lend itself to bar sales going up
– people have to be smarter and change how they do business to flow with the volatility
Richmond Business Climate: dynamic folks drawn to Richmond, overall very supportive people who want local biz to thrive
Danna Markland, Chief Executive Officer
Home Building Association of Richmond
2026 economic confidence prediction – 4
Danna’s economic observations for 2025
– 2025 rent stabilizations have lead to a higher vacancy rate
– prices on homes for sale and income levels are diverging at a rapid pace
– not enough inventory to make things more affordable and it’s leading to a housing crisis
– a healthy market is 300/month, RVA was at 196/month last fall
– interest rates are creating a timing issue for some buyers and sellers
– affordability overall is creating a participation issue
– trades equity firms are coming in from the outside, buying a market position by underbidding local firms and making local firms lose business
– lots of uncertainty with the home building pipeline: builder capacity is constrained, inventory is not there, we’ve had decades of underbuilding and the supply is not replenished
2026 predictions
– rent is looking favorable
– could see homebuilding drop off in ‘26
– do we want RVA to be a place where people can buy a home? If so, there needs to be more rezonings to allow for homebuilding
Richmond Business Climate: our people make it a great place to do business
John Dickinson, Founding Partner & Managing Director
Dickinson Williams & Company
2026 economic confidence prediction – 7 nationally, higher locally
John’s economic observations for 2025
– lots of uncertainty and wait and see from clients
– there was a strong pipeline in 2026, many folks making peace with or adjusting to the chaos
– interesst ratess: lenders are active, but more cautious, rates have plateaued
– volatility leads to fewer deals because many of the new opportunities are psychologically based
– many employees are hurting, needing 2-3 jobs, can’t make ends meet
– hot sectors: mostly B2B vs. B2C, multi-site trades like plumbing, roofing, maintenance or repair, AI, technology, airspace and defense
2026 predictions
– lower interest rates potentially on the horizon
– would love to see less volatility but don’t realistically see that happening – but the folks in the US are resilient so there’s a belief we will figure it out
Part 2: Economic Leaders Panel
There were three panelists representing the local economic community for the second half of the conversation.
John Dickinson, banker
2026 economic confidence prediction – 7 nationally, higher locally
John’s economic observations for 2025
– lots of uncertainty and wait and see from clients
– there was a strong pipeline in 2026, many folks making peace with or adjusting to the chaos
– interest rates: lenders are active, but more cautious, rates have plateaued
– volatility leads to fewer deals because many of the new opportunities are psychologically based
– many employees are hurting, needing 2-3 jobs, can’t make ends meet
– hot sectors: mostly B2B vs. B2C, multi-site trades like plumbing, roofing, maintenance or repair, AI, technology, airspace and defense
2026 predictions
– lower interest rates potentially on the horizon
– would love to see less volatility but don’t realistically see that happening – but the folks in the US are resilient so there’s a belief we will figure it out
Renee Haltom, Federal Reserve Bank
– numbers are similar to last year: slow job growth, measured uncertainty in 2025 hit record high levels
– we have learned to deal with it
– when rules keep changing, it gets harder but this time has made businesses plan for more contingencies
– business is more tenuous
– RVA job recovery from the pandemic is higher than the state, which VA is higher than the rest of the US
– how do you think about the very public criticism of economists lately? Scrutiny is part of this role, not uncommon and doesn’t throw us off our main goal
– growth has been happening in sectors, but isn’t broad-based
WEAK: DMV economy, government sector changes, housing marketing, margins are tight and creating risk
STRENGTH: AI + tech, higher income sectors, people have jobs, regional collaborations, low hire / low fire labor market, productivity gains from 2020 coming to fruition now
Predictions:
- government collection data was paused from the shutdown, they’re still trying to get back-dated gov’t research data
- they have used private sector alternative sources when possible
- have been trying to have more real-time convos with CEOs and owners
- harder to get a read on inflation numbers without the data
- Fed has moved rates down to “neutral” to focus on inflation control and job creation
- consumers resisting higher prices
- higher healthcare costs may harm consumer spending
- rate cut expected, 2% economic growth predicted
🙂 resilience of our economy and people
🙁 fed independence under pressure
Gus Faucher, Chief Economist, PNC Bank
– significant slowing in jobs growth
– DOGE cuts
– predicting a weaker job market
– uncertainty in many facets: tariffs, fiscal policy, immigration
– volume of levers of uncertainty all at once is concerning
CONCERNS: more industries losing than adding jobs, manufacturing flat or contracting, office market facing difficulties, 30% prediction of recession
- Higher income earners could be closer to a loss
- Some sectors are growing, some shrinking, but 1 or 2 large layoffs could = overall job loss numbers
GOOD:
- Bank regulations are tighter, overall decent shape, don’t have the excesses in economy from 2008 times
- Commercial lending is stable
- Fed should stay independent from government
Observations/Predictions:
- With 4th quarter government shutdown, Underinvesting in data collection, inflation data from October may be higher than reported
- Fed is on hold, geting more post-shutdown data, inflation data
- Predicts 2 rate cuts this year
- 2% economic growth
🙂 believes in overall good government structures to weather the chaos
🙁 fed independence under pressure
Dr. Dean Croushore, U of R professor
– one of the most uncertain and unsettling times
– any prediction these days means the error bands are larger
– 25% chance of a recession, equal chance for stock market decline
– suggestion to hedge against a downturn
– 2025 labor market was tepid, way down
– AI + data centers are buffering investments
– negative prediction overall for the year
– threat of a recession
In Dean’s opinion:
The public has the right to criticize and scrutinize the Federal Reserve Bank.
Worry that the danger could be in the wrong pressure on the fed
Research shows that central banks perform better when completely independent from government
Central banks beholden to government have overall worse performance
- Observations/Predictions:
- Government is not filling research/ data-driven positions around the economy once they are vacated
- We may have less data or more unreliable data going forward
- Investments in AI – fearing an overinvestment in AI / data centers
- OBBB – adding to the deficit by 1 trillion
- Predicting inflation will stay the same
- Below 2% economic growth this year
🙂belief in the American ability to recover
🙁inflation
Are you interested in seeing previous Economic Forecast recaps? Check out the 2024 recap linked below.
Check out the 2024 Economic Forecast recap
